Development of standard loss analysis model using big data

Focusing on Republic of Korea army

Authors

  • Seungho Lee Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)
  • Changkyu Lim Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)
  • Chahwa Lee Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)
  • Yongju Cho Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)
  • Jaeoh Kim Inha University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37944/jams.v5i2.158

Keywords:

war time resource requirement analysis, ground operation resource requirements analysis model (GORRAM), standard loss analysis model, weapon effectiveness index

Abstract

The Republic of Korea Army conducts simulations during peacetime using ground operation resource requirements analysis model (GORRAM) to determine potential losses when at war based on the latest operation plan. Although war-game simulation can yield reliable results, it takes considerable amount of time and effort to build a database and generate scenarios. Therefore, a study is required to supplement the detailed war-game simulation method to quickly determine expected losses. Using data built-in GORRAM, we tested the significance of four factors using beta regression analysis. While multiple regression is most commonly used to model the causality, beta regression is a powerful method for modeling response variables in the (0,1) range, such as the loss ratio. We verified that three factors, namely ‘topography’, ‘operational posture’, and ‘friend/foe power ratio’ were related to loss. This study proposes a new method for calculating the expected loss in real-time, overcoming a limitation of existing war-game simulation methods.

Author Biographies

Seungho Lee, Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)

* (First Author) Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS), Department of resource analysis, analysis planning officer, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9385-167X

Changkyu Lim, Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)

** (Co-Author) CAAS, Army personnel command, personnel officer

Chahwa Lee, Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)

*** (Co-Author) CAAS, Department of resource analysis, head of resource analysis, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7066-0026

Yongju Cho, Center for Army Analysis and Simulation (CAAS)

**** (Co-Author) CAAS, chief of CAAS, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4018-6710

Jaeoh Kim, Inha University

***** (Corresponding Author) Inha University, Dept. of data science, assistant professor, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7831-6353

loss analysis of topography

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Published

2022-08-31

How to Cite

Lee, S., Lim, C., Lee, C., Cho, Y., & Kim, J. (2022). Development of standard loss analysis model using big data: Focusing on Republic of Korea army. Journal of Advances in Military Studies, 5(2), 159-172. https://doi.org/10.37944/jams.v5i2.158