North Korea’s nuclear use scenario

Focusing on models for the probability of nuclear war and the impact-uncertainty grid

Authors

  • Jangho Park Korea National Defense University (KNDU)
  • Jisoo Park Chungnam National University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37944/jams.v5i2.152

Keywords:

North Korea’s nuclear threat, North Korea’s nuclear use scenarios, nuclear war possibility model, impact-uncertainty grid

Abstract

This paper analyzes the most challenging nuclear use scenario while leaving all possibilities open to using nuclear weapons and verifying North Korea’s possibility of using nuclear weapons. Until now, research on North Korea’s nuclear use scenario has been academically unsystematic, has lacked empirical examples, included cynical attitudes toward nuclear weapons, and has been based on analytical techniques containing limitations. Accordingly, this paper intends to suggest strategic implications for the existing North Korean nuclear threat by presenting the most challenging nuclear use scenario, which has not been covered in previous studies, using the “Nuclear War Potential Model” and “Impact-Uncertainty Grid.”

Author Biographies

Jangho Park, Korea National Defense University (KNDU)

* (First Author) Korea National Defense University (KNDU), Military Strategy, Major, [email protected], https://orcid.org/0000-0005-0593-5726

Jisoo Park, Chungnam National University

** (Co-Author) Chungnam National University, Graduate School of Peace and Security Studies, Military Science, Ph.D. Candidate and Republic of Korea Army College, Major, [email protected], https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9739-2105

Scenario of nuclear use

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Published

2022-08-31

How to Cite

Park, J., & Park, J. (2022). North Korea’s nuclear use scenario: Focusing on models for the probability of nuclear war and the impact-uncertainty grid . Journal of Advances in Military Studies, 5(2), 135-158. https://doi.org/10.37944/jams.v5i2.152